Steve Clarke described Liverpool’s record so far as “average,” while Everton will be at least be pleased to be higher up the table than they normally are at this time of year (especially after their opening day 0-1 home defeat against newly-promoted QPR).
Clarke’s verdict seems accurate - Liverpool won convincingly against Bolton and Arsenal, but crashed badly against Spurs two-weeks ago, and were unable to register good results against Stoke and Sunderland. Despite Roy Hodgson’s infamous claim after this fixture last season that a victory at Goodison would have been “utopia,” the Reds look well capable of winning here. Three points and a confidence-raising performance could set Dalgish’s boys on the road to success for the rest of the season.
It is difficult to know how Liverpool will approach this game – partly because Dalglish has an abundance of options available to him (especially in attack), partly because there are one or two fitness-issues with the likes of Daniel Agger, Glen Johnson and Steven Gerrard, and also because it is difficult to predict how Everton might line-up.
Against Man City last weekend, Moyes did a decent job of setting his team up to claim a goalless draw – he noticed that much of City’s devastating creative threat comes from the central spaces in front of their opposition defence, as Aguero, Silva and Nasri cut inside to dictate the play. As a result, Moyes deployed his semi-legendary strikerless formation, packing the Everton midfield and defending relatively deep and narrow. His winger pushed on to try to pin back City’s full-backs, to stop them from offering any width. Have a look at this Man City passing chalkboard (courtesy of The Guardian), and notice how few passes they were able to make in the space between the centre circle and the opposition penalty area:
Ultimately, though, supersub Mario Balotelli broke the deadlock with a deflected shot from the edge of the area, and Moyes’ gameplan was undone. He will be more assertive against Liverpool – partly because the Reds’ threat is not the same (Stewart Downing, for example, can play as a more conventional winger than Samir Nasri, capable of stretching the play), and partly because you suspect the home fans wouldn’t look favourably on such a negative approach in the Merseyside derby. Indeed, Liverpool’s defence has been far from impenetrable this season so, especially if Agger isn’t deemed fit enough to play, Moyes will feel confident about deploying an attacking approach. He will be sweating on the injury progress of Tim Cahill, who regularly scores against Liverpool, but he also has the experiened Louis Saha in reserve, as well as a couple of relatively untried/untested strikers in Apostolos Vellios and Denis Stracqualursi.
For this reason, one of the key tactical changes that might be expected from Dalglish is to sure up the defensive midfield, perhaps by deploying Gerrard in a deeper role, or by offering a start to Jay Spearing. Lucas Leiva carries a heavy burden of defensive work, making an average of 6.5 tackles per game. Charlie Adam, his usual central-midfield partner, makes fewer than two tackles per game, and he also has the worst disciplinary record in the Liverpool squad. This is a game which, in recent history, tends to see yellow and red cards. It will also be refereed by Martin Atkinson, who has sent off more players than anyone in the last 18 months.
Asking his players to go easy on the tackling is not a particularly viable option for Dalglish in a game such as this, not least because it would risk surrendering the midfield to an Everton team capable of carving out decent chances. As such, it may be worth the risk to ask club-captain and local lad Steven Gerrard to step back into the frame and offer some extra power and energy in the midfield.
This doesn’t seem like an ideal game for Jordan Henderson either. The young Mackem midfielder has played well at times in a Liverpool shirt, but his relative timidity is not suited for a match as potentially tempestuous as this, so expect the more experienced and industrious Dirk Kuyt to replace him on the right-wing. Having said that, I have predicted the dropping of Henderson on a couple of occasions already this season, but he has started each and every game. Don’t be surprised to see him come on as a second-half substitute for Steven Gerrard if the game needs suring up with some simple and patient passing (á la Benitez’s famous decision to replace Steven Gerrard with Lucas Leiva in this fixture four years ago).
In terms of Liverpool’s attacking strategy, it’s hard to believe Dalglish will be able to make room for more than three of Andy Carroll, Craig Bellamy, Maxi Rodriguez, Luis Suarez, Stewart Downing and Dirk Kuyt. As well as the former played in a deeper link-man role against Wolves, I expect the latter-three to start on Saturday. Suarez has formed a good relationship with Dirk Kuyt, and the Dutchman has the stamina to cover the right-wing too. As mentioned above, Downing offers vital width to drag Everton out of shape and create space for El Pistolero to exploit. Coupled with surging runs from Adam and Gerrard, it looks like a system which Everton’s defence would struggle to deal with. It doesn’t hurt to have the likes of Bellamy and Carroll as options from the bench, either.
So, in conclusion, it seems that competitiveness and spirit will be vital for this game, as with all Merseyside derbies. However, patience and discipline will be paramount too. If things aren’t going our way, Suarez in particular can become quite tetchy, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up a booking. Charlie Adam will have to be intelligent and subtle with his tackling and also his long-range passing. Steven Gerrard must not over-exert himself, because his long-term fitness is more important, but his leadership and drive from midfield could be a deciding factor in a game which could feature as many as five or six derby-debutants.
Possible tactical line-ups:
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