Free-scoring Wayne Rooney, Luis Nani and Danny Welbeck have contributed to United’s inflated early-season goal difference of +17 (in comparison with Liverpool’s +2). Indeed, Liverpool’s most hated North-West rivals have conceded just two away-goals (in three games) thanks to surprisingly mature and impressive performances from the likes of Phil Jones and Chris Smalling.
Brazilian midfielder Anderson has also been in good form for the Red Devils this season and, along with the rise of Tom Cleverley before Darren Fletcher’s return from injury, United’s midfield looks a lot more dynamic than the Carrick-Scholes/Giggs axis of recent years. Added creativity from Summer signing Ashley Young (five league assists already this season), coupled with increasingly assured performances from the young goalkeeper David de Gea, make Saturday’s home game a tough task for Liverpool.
Dalglish’s side also seem to be on the up, with victories over Brighton (in the League Cup), Wolves and Everton since the double-hiccup defeats against Stoke and Tottenham. Andy Carroll’s winner in the Merseyside Derby may give him the confidence to finally win over his critics and play himself into a good run of form, while Luis Suarez has been consistently impressive since signing for £23m in January.
Another standout performer this season has been the ever-dependable and increasingly captain-like Lucas Leiva, who makes an average of 6.6 tackles per game – he will be absolutely vital to Liverpool’s game-plan on Saturday in terms of putting the shackles of Wayne Rooney (who tends to drop into deeper positions to receive the ball), and especially in the all-important midfield battle.
The early-season performances of new left-back José Enrique have also been promising to say the least. With two league assists to his name, great pace/strength/fitness and decent defensive positioning, he looks like a great long-term signing – he will have his work cut out putting the shackles on Luis Nani, though, who has been excellent for United for 18 months now.
And with Dalglish claiming to have his full squad available for selection (including club captain Steven Gerrard), he has a number of tactical options available to him.
He could drop Andy Carroll, and give Gerrard a start in a 4-3-3 in an attempt to flood the midfield. Alex Ferguson is pretty certain to opt for his usual 4-4-2/4-4-1-1, so Dalglish might be tempted to control the game by outnumbering United’s midfield 3-to-2. In this fixture last season (back in March), United struggled to deal with late attacking runs from Liverpool’s midfielders, and both Gerrard and Charlie Adam would be more than happy to exploit space between the opposition’s midfield and defence. A midfield-three would also give Lucas Leiva the opportunity to drop deeper as an out-and-out anchor man, thus shackling United’s main creative threat – England’s brave Wayne Rooney.
What is perhaps more likely, though, is that Dalglish will stick with the fluid, high-tempo 4-4-2/4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1 hybrid which has served Liverpool well against, for example, Bolton and Everton. You can bet that this game will be a high-paced, toughly-contested affair, so if Liverpool will be looking to go for the jugular right from the off. Indeed, although Suarez and Carroll have so-far failed to strike up an intimate understanding, on paper the combination of the Uruguayan’s pace, flair, guile and trickery with Carroll’s power, strength, work-rate and finishing is extremely dangerous – one which I think Dalglish will be tempted to deploy against United’s thusfar impressive but potentially leaky defence.
Picking a front-two of Suarez and Carroll has implications for the rest of the team, though. Most notably (and assuming that Lucas Leiva is a certain starter), it leaves just three midfield/wide positions to be filled by Gerrard, Kuyt, Downing and Adam (not to mention the likes of Jordan Henderson, Craig Bellamy and Maxi Rodriguez). Gerrard and Lucas formed a good midfield partnership against United in March, but I’m not convinced that Dalglish will want to drop Adam – especially not in a game which could be decided by a) the swift transition from defence to attack, or b) set-pieces.
Of course, the Liverpool management will have an eye on the threats posed by United, and will be focusing on negating some of their attacking talent. Part of it is a guessing game about what team-shape Ferguson will go with (although I maintain that his usual 4-4-1-1 is most likely). But Dalglish will know, for example, that United play very wide this season, and their wingers (Young and Nani) have both been causing havoc in opposition defences. Liverpool’s right-back position remains a problem as Martin Kelly picked up a knock midweek, and Glen Johnson may not be ready to return from injury, so if neither of those two are deemed fit enough to play, Dalglish may have to alter his shape entirely to make sure Liverpool aren’t exposed down that side (perhaps by playing a back-three, or a lopsided 4-3-3).
A guess at the line-ups
Bearing in mind injuries to (for United) Smalling, Rafael, Cleverley and Evans, I expect them to push Phil Jones to right-back to make way for the recall of Vidic and Ferdinand at the heart of their defence. The rest is fairly self-explanatory, although it is possible that Danny Welbeck will be preferred to Javier Hernandez in the “number nine” role.
Liverpool’s formation is more complex, and it requires Dalglish to drop Stewart Downing (who is, on recent form, the most droppable of Liverpool’s attacking options – especially in a bitterly contested derby match). It is a kind of lopsided 4-4-2/4-3-3, where the left-wing is partially surrendered as a weak spot, relying on Jose Enrique to deal with Nani and the overlap of Jones with only the help of the defensively suspect Charlie Adam. However, it is ideal for the counter-attack, because if Phil Jones bombs forward, he will leave space on Liverpool’s left channel for Suarez to move into and receive passes from the likes of Adam, Gerrard and Lucas.
It also allows Liverpool to field a midfield-three, while Dirk Kuyt can help out defensively with whichever unfit right-back Dalglish chooses, without breaking up the attacking pairing of Suarez and Carroll. Lucas can drop onto Rooney and Carragher and Skrtel can sit deep and narrow. Assuming Enrique can win his individual battle, it is defensively sound as well as possessing a coherent and potentially devastating attacking strategy, both by maintaining possession and controlling the game, and in terms of launching quick, incisive counter-attacks down the left-channel.
Expect an exciting game, with lots of goals!
Follow Phil on Twitter @CrowdGoBananes