But the Swans have been poor away from home so far this season, earning just one point out of a possible 15, so Liverpool fans have some cause for optimism. It should be, though, a fascinating tactical game.
Swansea are winning the affection of neutrals all over the country for their distinctive brand of possession football. Theirs is a relatively patient, methodical passing game – they are happy to hold onto the ball in deep positions and wait for an opportunity to expose the opposition’s defence, either by making use of their pacy, tricky wingers Scott Sinclair and Nathan Dyer, or via intelligent through-balls from their creative midfield players.
They average 57% possession (which is the fourth highest ratio in the league, behind Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City), and maintain an impressive 85% pass completion rate – this acts as an effective defensive strategy more than anything, and is a Barcelona-esque method of reducing the opponents opportunities to score. Already this season Swansea have completed nearly 500 passes more than Liverpool, whose comparatively direct and high-paced style will provide an interesting contrast.
Their control of possession, coupled with a general physical slightness (Dyer and Leon Britton are both a mere 5”5) make them one of the least aggressive teams in the league – they concede an average of just eight fouls per game, and have the by far the worst aerial duel success rate (30%) in the league.
Possible line-ups
Steven Gerrard is still suffering from an ankle infection, while Jamie Carragher’s fitness remains in doubt. Brendan Rodgers, meanwhile, will probably stick with the side that comfortably defeated Bolton last weekend:
Kenny Dalglish is likely to stick with the back four which kept a clean sheet at The Hawthorns last week, and the increasingly promising attacking partnership of Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll should continue up front – the latter’s height will provide a vital goal-threat, especially from set-pieces. Meanwhile, Craig Bellamy is tipped to start against his boyhood club Cardiff’s great rivals, which may precipitate a move for Stewart Downing to the right-wing – although Dirk Kuyt and Jordan Henderson will be vying for a starting place also.
Dalglish’s choice of defensive strategy will be interesting. Liverpool aren’t used to being dominated in possession at Anfield, so an energetic high-pressing game might be employed to counteract that possibility, and a relatively mobile centre-back pairing of Martin Skrtel and Daniel Agger could facilitate a high defensive line. Charlie Adam in particular is perhaps more suited to a high pressing game than a patient defensive role – he has covered more ground (104,702 metres) than any other Liverpool player this season, while his decision-making and discipline can sometimes be found wanting.
However, as it has already been noted, Swansea are happy to calmly recycle the ball in deep positions (an average of 52% of their passes are in their own half, the highest proportion in the league). If Liverpool get too impatient when out of possession, and get drawn higher and higher up the pitch, they will be left vulnerable at the back. Swansea’s second goal against Wolverhampton Wanderers two weeks ago was a good example of this. It is also worth noting that, somewhat counterintuitively, Swansea create a lot of goalscoring chances from corners, thanks in part to Mark Gower’s excellent set-piece technique.
Crucially, though, this is a Swansea side which seems to leak goals, and Liverpool have a number of excellent attacking talents to draw upon, so, provided they have a coherent strategy for dealing with Swansea’s fairly distinctive playing style, the home side should be confident of a victory on Saturday.
Follow Phil on Twitter @CrowdGoBananes