On the Brink of Takeover - What now for Liverpool?

Last updated : 05 December 2006 By Eoin Keehan
That Liverpool would need outside investment in order to compete has been inevitable for some time, and that has become crystal clear this season, when the dreadful truth finally dawned on most fans that we will not be competing for the title any time soon; and that on this occasion it is probably not the fault of the manager.

The period of due diligence that Liverpool are about to enter with Dubai International Capital is not surprising, but it does not mean that Liverpool are suddenly going to become a rich man's toy. Some Chelsea fans have been gloating at the deal, using it as a retrospective justification for their own club's actions. If this deal goes ahead it will be a commercial deal. It will not be like Abramovich's Chelsea who do not realistically expect to make a profit, and it is doubtful whether Chelsea will ever have a viable turnover to keep up their current success without his backing.

When you look at clubs around Europe, most of them are effectively run at a loss, and the top clubs at a serious loss; barring the occasional sale of a top player that nets a temporary profit. The difference is whether the club is run recklessly, like Leeds, and sometimes Madrid, or managed properly, like Liverpool. It comes down to theoretical and actual income streams, and this roughly equates to the club's fanbase.

Liverpool are currently locked in a cycle where they are performing far below their potential revenue from the game. They are hampered by physical constraints due to a stadium that only caters for 45,000 thousand, when demand is closer to 60,000. They are also hampered in the transfer market where their budget struggles to match valuations, not just of once in a generation players like Rooney, but even relatively sure bets such as David Trezeguet or Frank Ribery. Liverpool are not only missing out on A list players, they are also missing out on B list players, and for a number of years have effectively been living (reasonably successfully it has to be said in fairness) on youth players, unknowns and C list players.

The problem arises at title winning level. By the time one playing problem has been solved in the team, one or two players have aged or been injured elsewhere, and a new gap has opened. This has left us consistently fielding a third/fourth placed team for nearly a decade now, with a squad good enough to win cups, but nowhere near the powerhouse it needs to be to win a league. It is now accident that out third/fourth place position consistently equates with our finances as a club, since our earning paths diverged from Man United following their full floatation in 1998.

In short, Liverpool are now seriously and obviously struggling to justify their glorious history, and their past performances in the game. Investment, or a takeover by an outside bidder is not intended to make the club the plaything of a sugar daddy; it is to give the club a more stable platform for competing. It is the reason the beloved Moores family were first invited onto the Board. If this deal goes ahead you will not see Liverpool spending 60-80million a year like Chelsea. You will see them spending maybe 40m a year, largely justified by a larger stadium, and a greater stream of income from the club's vast fanbase. And in the club's accounts you will see that Liverpool on paper, like Man U could theoretically generate an income stream to justify this. It is unlikely the Chelsea fanbase could generate a similar income stream to underwrite their current ambitions; and they are actively engaged in buying history at the moment to compensate for this lack.

But of course, as I said, in practice all football clubs are run at a loss. The question in football is whether you are a stable club that occasionally needs funding top-ups, or whether you are extending far beyond your natural reach, and one day have to curb your ambitions. In this respect football clubs are like governments, not corporations. They are not expected to make a profit; but they should be run properly and at a loss that will not endanger their long term futures.

Finally, it is a reflection of market forces and corporate Britain. Britain is no longer a land of independently rich entrepreneurs. With globalisation, that action has moved elsewhere, and sport has inevitably followed. Italy and Spain are exceptions as their industry has stayed family-held to a much greater degree. The Fiat and Agnelli families are witness to that. Whatever deal Liverpool eventually does strike, it will be with all of this in mind.