Despite several less than convincing performances, runs to the semi-final of both domestic cups stopped the inconsistent and sometimes terrible league performances dominating the mood of supporters earlier in the season. Likewise United’s three game losing streak has kept the faint prospect of Champions League qualification alive.
It is hard to escape the feeling that if the Reds season were an aging and wounded animal then putting it down would be the kindest act but the occasional wag of the tail makes it impossible to voluntarily administer a final jab. On Sunday Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, of all places, will most likely put everyone out of their misery.
Either way the final conclusion to the season is going to raise many more questions than it answers. At the forefront of these inquiries are Brendan Rodger’s credentials to remain as manager. The question is easy to pose; the answer is as complicated as you wish to make it.
If you err on the side of simplicity then Rodger’s is a man floundering out of his depth. There is no record to refer to in order to support his continuation in the job. Well actually there is a record but it’s not pretty reading for the Northern Irishman. He is the first Liverpool manager to fail to deliver a trophy within the first three years of tenure since the 1950’s. His main claim for job security is really the superlative form and entertainment delivered last season. The further those memories recede into the distance the more precarious Rodger’s position becomes.
The bald facts of three trophy less years are enough for the doubters but those so inclined can throw in Rodger’s often foolish pronouncements (it was on the back of this season’s unbeaten mid-season run that he declared the team was aiming for second place) that are frequently followed by a poor result, in this instance a difficult to comprehend or forgive Anfield capitulation to United. It is frustrating for sure to witness self-inflicted blows; even in today’s 24 hour news environment it doesn’t seem a hard thing to stick to a “taking each game as it comes” public mantra. I am sure there is an example in recent years where hubris has not come back to bite the club in the arse but I cannot recall it.
So the criticism of Rodgers is clear, concise and easy to state; he is an inexperienced coach who’s naivety has been exposed by failed European campaigns and domestic inconsistency and who over talks to compensate for the potential to be outthought by the likes of Tim Sherwood at crucial and defining moments in a season. Among those who think this way it is an article of faith that Luis Suarez was the true architect of Rodger’s calling card season.
As frustration mounts at the possibility of failure to reach even the minimum target of a top four finish turning into a probability, a failing made more galling by being surpassed by a Man Utd side that could have been overhauled at various points of the season, the argument is compelling in its simplicity. It allows for both hope that a change of manager will solve problems and denial that those problems may be a feature of FSG ownership rather than a bug.
The Boston owners have scored some clear wins off the field. Their patience and diligence in finding a solution to the issue of an aging Anfield that has kept the club at its spiritual home rather than some soulless bowl will be a positive legacy regardless of anything else that occurs during their watch. The advances in the way the club monetize its legend, while in of itself a distasteful element of the modern game, at least diminishes the effects that FFP could have on the club. The wage structure that they have instigated at least in theory stops the kind of deal that saw the likes of Joe Cole bleed money from the club for little in return.
Steven Gerrard’s relocation to the US and Glen Johnson’s impending contract expiration see the last of the big contracts removed from the wage bill. In Gerrard’s case of course the club is losing a last link to a successful past, and specifically the triumph of Istanbul. It feels like sacrilege to say it but the time feels right for the club, team and manager to learn to move forward without his dominating presence.
If those two contracts mark the end of an era at Anfield, and the hard balling of negotiations with Sterling’s agent indicate that they will not be repeated, then FSG have finally reshaped the club in their image. A lean, young and theoretically hungry (assuming the Balotelli experiment is cut short this summer) squad, soon to play in a larger stadium backed by ever increasing commercial revenues is, I am sure, the vision they had when they bought the club.
It is understandable from their perspective that on field success has been seen as a bonus rather than an absolute requirement during their restructuring of the club. Even qualification for the Champions League makes no sense if it is achieved at the cost of huge sums in transfer fees and wages (again, from their perspective). When FSG took over from Hicks and Gillette they cleared the debt which was costing £25m a year to service. It is about this number plus the extra revenues from sales that has been made available for buying players. It fits with their stated intention to make the club self sustaining. This has been an unpleasant medicine for those of us hankering for a return to dominance.
Logically it is clear that those days have gone but emotionally it always seems possible that they are just around the corner. The attempts to navigate that bend in the past have led to money being squandered often on player’s that define the term fool’s gold. That recruitment technique seems to have been repeated in last summers dealings and it is there that the debate around Rodger’s ability to take the club forward is really to be had.
It seems fair to assume that there is a conversation among the transfer committee that includes Rodgers in drawing up a list of targets. Following that is where things get murky. Does the committee then work some kind of money ball calculation before deciding who among them is the top target or do they go about assigning a value in transfer fee and wages for Rodger’s first choice and try and negotiate a deal based on those calculations. Based on the amount of players that the club have been linked with and rumoured to have bid on only for that player to show up elsewhere the latter of the scenarios seems to more likely. It appears that the policy ended up with the disruptive influence of Mario Balotelli being foisted upon him. Balotelli is of course not solely responsible for the season’s lack of goals and Rodger’s insistence on playing him as lone striker seemed obtuse when it clearly wasn't working to compensate for the loss of Sturridge let alone Suarez.
It is hard not to feel at least some sympathy for Rodger’s in such a system. What is doesn't do, however, is get him off the hook for some frankly dispirited displays in crucial games (Utd at home and Villa in the semi-final spring immediately to mind). Responsibility for these seem to sit firmly and fairly at the feet of the manager.
So where does that leave us all? The question will be answered by how much FSG feel they face a stick or twist decision. If they are sanguine about the evolution of their “project” then we can expect to see Rodger’s in the dug out next season.
If they look at the stats then they may well be encouraged in such a decision. Rodger’s win percentage at Anfield is 54%. By way of comparison Rafa Benitez managed 56%, Kenny Dalglish 48%. If they are looking to better it or judge how much it needs to improve Arsene Wenger weighs in at 58% and Jose Mourinho surpasses all at 70%. Both managers, clearly, are not candidates to replace Rodgers. There is no up and coming Premier League manager out performing Rodgers on a win percentage scale.
Jurgen Klopp is available this summer but whether the potential disruption and risk of such a change appeals to John Henry, even if the German fancied the job, is unknown. They may of course hold the view that a lot of money left the club by way of transfer fees last summer and Rodgers failed to harness the assets at his disposal. If that’s the case then no win percentage will save his job and Klopp’s record may appeal to them.
I wrote at the very beginning of the season that as fans we were going to have to accept a step back from the heights of last seasons genuine title challenge. It has been a bigger, more frustrating step than I hoped for but not really surprising. If ever one could reference Churchill’s famous quote about Russia being a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma and apply it to a football club it is Liverpool of the last 25 years. FSG’s method of solving the puzzle has never included throwing endless money at the problem. It is a solution that is going to involve set backs that richer rivals exploit. The margins for error are slim if the club is to punch above its weight (when compared to the financial resources of its four major domestic rivals).
Clearly a combination of inadequate scouting, poor negotiation and/or strict budgetary limits and tactical naivety have resulted in a unbalanced squad and disappointing results in too many games. If FSG and Rodgers have a clear idea of where and why these elements conspired and a determination to eradicate them then I remain hopeful for a better season to come. If Rodgers has reached the limit of his ability and FSG the end game of their ambition then we can expect more of the same with or without the current manager.
I believe Rodgers will be leading the team next season but I don't think he will survive anything like a repeat of the beginning of this one. It really feels like the opening few months of next season is where this particular experiment will either prove its merit or will come to its natural end. I believe what we have seen of it so far warrants sticking with it but the obvious and avoidable mistakes need to be eradicated.
A good start would be spoiling Chelsea’s title party on Sunday.