Time will tell in Athens on aged Milan

Last updated : 20 May 2007 By Sunday Times

"Five times, we won it five times. In Istanbul we won it five times."

The Kop choir will have to change the words of their favourite hymn of praise on Wednesday if Liverpool overcome Milan in a reprise of the 2005 European Cup final. "In Athens we won it six times" doesn't scan quite as nicely. "By the Acropolis", perhaps? Such trivial concerns presuppose that Liverpool are going to win again, which is some presumption, given the style with which Kaka and company saw off Manchester United in their semi-final, but there is a decent case to be made for such an outcome. Milan are favourites with the bookmakers, with Ladbrokes offering 6-4 on, but although they do parade an impressive Who's Who of European football, Maldini, Nesta and Seedorf are well into the autumn of their careers in a young man's game. Youth is a significant weapon in the underdogs' armoury - all the more so in the temperatures expected in Athens.

Reasons for Liverpool supporters - and for the rest of us wishing England's representatives well - to be cheerful do not end there. Apart from younger, more energetic legs, Steven Gerrard and his team take into the fray that terrific, indefatigable spirit that served them so well against the same opponents two years ago. In the most dramatic final of modern times, they clambered out of the grave at 3-0 down to emerge triumphant. Milan remember it bitterly. Seven of the players who had their hearts broken on that never-to-be-forgotten night in the Ataturk stadium will be on duty this time, and midfielder Gennaro Gattuso has articulated their desire to avenge the worst experience of some long and very distinguished careers.

The bookies rarely get it wrong, but careful analysis of Milan's season provides more grounds for Scouse optimism than may be superficially apparent. The Rossoneri are fortunate even to be in the competition after last year's match-fixing scandal in Italy that initially had them deducted so many points that they failed to finish high enough to qualify. Only on appeal, when the punishment was reduced to eight points, did they get in, and then it was at the preliminary stage.

They decided almost from day one that their handicap in Serie A precluded a realistic chance of winning the scudetto, so they concentrated on Europe. That explains a league table going into the weekend that has them an embarrassing 32 points behind the champions, Internazionale, who clinched the title on April 22 with five games to spare.

Focusing on the Champions League did not ensure smooth progress, however. Milan were beaten by AEK Athens (1-0) and Lille (2-0) in their group before making hard work of eliminating Celtic at the first knockout stage, when Liverpool, in contrast, were accounting for Barcelona. The problems Milan encountered with the obdurate Scottish champions, who held them 0-0 in Glasgow and conceded only once in the San Siro, augur well for Liverpool. Celtic, ruggedly competitive, threatened to cause an upset with a destructive game, and Rafael Benitez's team is better equipped to disrupt the slick passing of Andrea Pirlo and Clarence Seedorf and to strike powerfully on the break.

Milan were scarcely irresistible in the quarter-finals. They drew 2-2 at home to Bayern Munich before finally playing up to their stellar reputations and winning 2-0 in Bavaria. Liverpool, meanwhile, were steamrollering PSV Eindhoven. The Italians' status as favourites is largely down to the quality of their performance against United in the semis, but mitigating factors need to be borne in mind when assessing its true merit. Foremost among these must be the injuries that fatally weakened the United defence. In the first leg at Old Trafford, Kaka scored two fine goals, but the Reds' rearguard, shorn of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic, parted more like the Red Sea. The formidable partnership of Jamie Carragher and Daniel Agger are unlikely to be so obliging. In the return, Vidic was back but nowhere near match-fit and he was the only one of Sir Alex Ferguson's first-choice back four to play.

Similarly, it was key that when they were beaten 3-0 in the San Siro, not only were United missing important individuals, but those who did play were fatigued by playing their fifth match in 16 days. Critically, on the Saturday before the decisive return in Italy, they needed to come from behind and win at Everton to secure their lead in the Premiership. Milan, in dressing-room parlance, were different class, but they were not playing the United that thrashed Roma 7-1. Liverpool can take heart from that fact, as well as from their own notable success in the semis against Chelsea when Pepe Reina emulated Jerzy Dudek's shootout heroics in Istanbul two years ago.

Benitez, a Spaniard whose brain is more attuned to Europe than to the Premiership, believes Milan have their weaknesses, especially at the back, where the Brazilian goalkeeper, Dida, is fallible under crosses, as demonstrated by Cristiano Ronaldo's headed goal at Old Trafford. Massimo Oddo and Marek Jankulovski are vulnerable at full-back and the veteran centre-halves, Paolo Maldini and Alessandro Nesta, are showing their age. The Milanese strength lies in midfield, with Gattuso and Massimo Ambrosini ferreting relentlessly for possession in the knowledge that Pirlo, Seedorf and Kaka can use it to devastating effect.

It will be interesting to see if Benitez chooses to mirror Carlo Ancelotti's 4-4-1-1 formation or plumps for good old-fashioned 4-4-2. The temptation must be to use Gerrard "in the hole" behind Dirk Kuyt - the position in which he transformed the game in Istanbul - but sources close to the Liverpool manager suggest that he is more likely to deploy his inspirational captain on the right side of midfield.

Those same sources have it that Liverpool will not man-mark Kaka but will leave it to Javier Mascherano, Xabi Alonso or Gerrard to pick him up on an as-and-when basis. Second-guessing Benitez is a fraught business, but if it is to be 4-4-2, the only areas of selectorial doubt would appear to be left midfield and second striker. On the left, Bolo Zenden (fitness permitting) will probably get the nod, ahead of the ephemeral Harry Kewell, and up front the choice is between Peter Crouch and Craig Bellamy to partner Kuyt. The Welshman's pace would worry those suspect full-backs and ageing central defenders, as will Kuyt's waspish persistence, but the grapevine indicates a preference for Crouch.

Good enough? Maybe. Milan's one orthodox striker, Alberto Gilardino, has the look of meat and drink for Carragher, and if the lines of supply to Kaka from the pass-master, Pirlo, can be disconnected by Mascherano and Alonso, a second tour de force in three seasons is not beyond Liverpool. You can get 9-1 against them winning 2-1. For what it's worth - a measly tenner - I'm on.