Deciding How Much Liverpool Should Pay Bayern Munich for Thiago Alcantara

You know those transfers that seem ludicrous at the time they come to light, but through persistence and staying power, they gradually evolve into something resembling reality?

Yeah, well, Thiago Alcantara is reportedly in the crosshairs of Liverpool.

It's been widely reported that both the player and the Anfield club are keen to make a deal happen, but the hold-up, as ever, is the fee. Bayern want something in the region of €30-35m, while Liverpool aren't prepared to go much higher than €20m, sparking that ever-tedious debate over how much a player is 'worth'.

Diminishing Value

Value, of course, is relative. There are various mitigating factors the Liverpool team will be considering as they look to craft a financially sensible offer - key among them being his age and contract status.

The Spain midfielder is back in the form of his life and has been integral in their run to the Champions League final, in which they have averaged five goals per game since the group stages - a run which included their show-stopping 8-2 smashing of Barcelona.

He turned 29 in April, however, so while he remains firmly in his peak years, his value is only going to diminish over the course of any long-term contract Liverpool put on the table.

The fact that his current Bayern deal expires next summer further strengthens the Reds' reluctance to pay big; they know the German champions more or less have to sell, or risk having a very unhappy player on their books, who they could lose for free in a year's time anyway.

An Unprecedented Market

All that said, however, if these were the only factors in consideration, then a player of Thiago's ilk would command a fee at the north end of Bayern's requested €35m - perhaps even slightly more. But this is far from a normal transfer market, and Liverpool are not the only club whose spending has been limited by the coronavirus crisis.

We've seen values slashed and deals go down the toilet all over Europe as a result of the pandemic and its impact on the finances of elite clubs. Liverpool themselves couldn't justify paying Timo Werner's modest release clause, which came in at around €50m, while even the mighty Real Madrid have decided against any major additions ahead of their bid to retain their La Liga title.

Outside of Chelsea and Manchester City, no-one in the Premier League is keen to spend big and this is something Bayern will be considering. Outside of a surprise entry from PSG, they won't get a more serious bidder than Liverpool, nor will they get a better chance to attain a reasonable fee for an asset whose value dwindles by the week.

Some clubs have used this situation to their advantage. Paul Pogba once looked set to leave Manchester United but the pandemic means no club can realistically afford him, and he will now stay at Old Trafford - for another year at least. Bayern would love to play the same hand with Thiago, given his recent performances, but they can't.

The Wijnaldum Factor

Bayern may point to Liverpool's Georginio Wijnaldum, who finds himself in an eerily similar situation to Thiago. Same position, same age, same contract status, yet the Reds aren't keen to sell at all, so the Germans may cry hypocrisy and ask why they should be expected to accept a pittance for Thiago.

Liverpool may then highlight that Wijnaldum has kept his grievances, if there are any, under wraps. He has been hesitant over extending his deal beyond 2021, but there have been no other signs of discontent or a desire to leave the club now, which contrasts directly with Thiago, whose ambitions to play elsewhere next season have been publicly discussed by the club's higher-ups.

Regarding Wijnaldum, talk of a reunion with former Netherlands boss Ronald Koeman at Barcelona (which 90min's Andy Headspeath predicted right off the bat) has recently surfaced. If that is an avenue he chooses to pursue, then Bayern will use the fee as a benchmark for their own demands - they won't want a European rival making a tidy profit off their backs.

Another transfer which can be used as a waypoint may be Tottenham's acquisition of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, who - though not in the same quality bracket as Wijnaldum or Thiago - just moved clubs for substantially short of €20m.

Like with any transfer, the actual value, and likely eventual fee, falls somewhere between what both clubs want. If Liverpool are offering €15m and Bayern want €35m, then negotiations will likely finish somewhere around €25m including add-ons.

Given the highly complicated state of affairs, that's probably about right for the world class Spaniard.